Models to predict milk fat concentration and yield of lactating dairy cows: A meta-analysis

Few models have attempted to predict total milk fat because of its high variation among and within herds. The objective of this meta-analysis was to develop models to predict milk fat concentration and yield of lactating dairy cows. Data from 158 studies consisting of 658 treatments from 2,843 animals were used. Data from several feed databases were used to calculate dietary nutrients when dietary nutrient composition was not reported. Digested intake (DI, g/d) of each fatty acid (FA; C12:0, C14:0, C16:0, C16:1, C18:0, C18:1 cis, C18:1 trans C18:2, C18:3) and absorbed amounts (g/d) of each AA (Arg, His, Ile, Leu, Lys, Met, Phe, Thr, Trp, Val) were calculated and used as candidate variables in the models. A multi-model inference method was used to fit a large set of mixed models with study as the random effect, and the best models were selected based on Akaike's information criterion corrected for sample size and evaluated further. Observed milk fat concentration (MFC) ranged from 2.26 to 4.78%, and milk fat yield (MFY) ranged from 0.488 to 1.787 kg/d among studies. Dietary levels of forage, starch, and total FA (dry matter basis) averaged 50.8 ± 10.3% (mean ± standard deviation), 27.5 ± 7.0%, and 3.4 ± 1.3%, respectively. The MFC was positively correlated with dietary forage (0.294) and negatively associated with dietary starch (?0.286). The DI of C18:2 (g/d) was more negatively correlated with MFC (?0.313) than that of the other FA. The best variables for predicting MFC were days in milk, FA-free dry matter intake, forage, starch, DI of C18:2, DI of C18:3, and absorbed Met, His, and Trp. The best predictor variables for MFY were FA-free dry matter intake, days in milk, absorbed Met and Ile, and intakes of digested C16:0 and C18:3. This model had a root mean square error of 14.1% and concordance correlation coefficient of 0.81. Surprisingly, DI of C18:3 was positively related to milk fat, and this relationship was consistently observed among models. The models developed can be used as a practical tool for predicting milk fat of dairy cows, while recognizing that additional factors are likely to also affect fat yield.     

Bayesian threshold selection for extremal models using measures of surprise

Statistical extreme value theory is concerned with the use of asymptotically motivated models to describe the extreme values of a process. A number of commonly used models are valid for observed data that exceed some high threshold. However, in practice a suitable threshold is unknown and must be determined for each analysis. While there are many threshold selection methods for univariate extremes, there are relatively few that can be applied in the multivariate setting. In addition, there are only a few Bayesian-based methods, which are naturally attractive in the modelling of extremes due to data scarcity. The use of Bayesian measures of surprise to determine suitable thresholds for extreme value models is proposed. Such measures quantify the level of support for the proposed extremal model and threshold, without the need to specify any model alternatives. This approach is easily implemented for both univariate and multivariate extremes.     

基于分子矩阵预测石脑油分子水平组成

针对石脑油的组成特点,对分子同系物(MTHS)矩阵进行简化,以C_3~C_(12)的正构烷烃、异构烷烃、环烷烃和芳烃构成的分子矩阵来表示石脑油的分子水平组成;建立了通过工业中常用的石脑油物性数据(如蒸馏曲线、密度)等计算石脑油分子水平组成的方法。以各项物理性质的实测值与预测值的残差平方和构建目标函数,并在原模型的基础上加以有效的约束,进行优化求解,得到石脑油分子水平组成数据。选择两组已知组成的石脑油作为样本,由Aspen Plus模拟软件计算其蒸馏曲线、密度等整体性质,根据上述方法对两组样本进行计算。两组样本的预测结果与真实组成的对比表明,该方法可用来预测石脑油分子水平组成,且准确度较原模型有提升。     

新型提渣装置在步进式加热炉上的开发应用

针对步进式加热炉炉底出渣较困难的情况,分析氧化铁皮渣产生的原因,开发了一种新型提渣装置,以解决炉底地坑内堆积炉渣的清理问题,实现了无需用天车即可将炉底氧化铁皮渣运至地面以上。通过以上工作,承钢成功研制了一种步进式加热炉炉底提渣专利装置。     

渗流作用下新型装配重力式挡土墙有限元分析

为研究渗流作用下新型装配重力式挡土墙应力变化及墙体排水通道对墙后土体固结的影响,采用ABAQUS进行有限元分析,有限元分析结果与模型试验结果相吻合,证明该模型的合理性。在此基础上研究渗流作用下墙体应力变化趋势及墙体排水通道对墙后土体固结效果的影响。研究结果表明:横向排水通道对墙后土体固结效果的影响优于纵向排水通道对土体固结效果的影响,墙体底部横向排水通道的影响作用最显著;渗流作用下墙体应力由上往下呈先增大后减小的趋势,墙体下部所受最大水平剪应力最大。     

聚乙烯醇/牛I型胶原支架材料的制备及评价

研究了一种聚乙烯醇(PVA)和胶原(COL)复合支架材料的制备方法。采用氨基硅烷对PVA海绵表面进行了氨基化修饰后，通过戊二醛溶液交联牛Ⅰ型胶原(COL)，最后通过赖氨酸溶液封闭，获得一种PVA/COL复合支架材料。采用扫描电镜(SEM)、X光电子能谱仪(XPS)、傅里叶红外光谱(FT-IR)等手段对支架材料的理化性能进行表征，并通过细胞实验对支架材料的生物学性能进行评价。结果表明，经过COL修饰的PVA孔隙率为21.33%，平均孔径为168.68 ?m且均匀分布，支架材料接触角为20.03°。对支架材料的生物学评价结果表明C3A细胞在复合材料上黏附良好，优于PVA组；CCK-8增殖检测结果表明细胞在复合材料上呈增殖生长趋势，与对照组PVA相比差异显著(P?0.01)。将PVA和COL复合制备得到的支架材料具有良好的理化及生物学特性，具有广阔的应用前景。     

高温下Pt-13Rh/Pt热电偶的热电动势衰减机理研究

模拟1400℃富含Pt-Rh的使用环境，研究R型热电偶(Pt-13Rh/Pt)在高温下的衰减机理。分析竹节状缩颈现象的形成原因，讨论引起热电动势衰减的因素。结果表明，在富含气相Pt-Rh的高温环境下，热电偶外瓷珠表面沉积了固态的Pt、Rh，导致绝缘电阻的降低以及实际测温点向低温区转移，最终导致热电动势衰减。     

Control Model for Large‐Sized Gantry Type Linear Motor Slider

At present, many industrial carrier devices utilize linear motor sliders. However, a heavier load requires a linear motor (which is an example of a direct drive device) to get higher power, compared with a rotary motor with a ball screw slider (which is an example of an indirect drive device). In order to obtain higher power at a lower cost, a linear slider with multiple motors can be utilized, for example, a gantry type linear motor slider. Moving the gantry type slider requires two linear motors that are set up in parallel to enable synchronization control. Some conventional synchronization control methods have been proposed for the parallel twin linear slider; however, a large‐scaled gantry type linear motor slider has two unique problems: mechanical distortion caused by the limitations of installation environment and coupling caused by joints with low stiffness. This paper proposes a control model to solve these problems, and an identification method of each parameter. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the control model is verified by comparison with simulation results and experimental results.     

一种新型多功能燕尾卯空心砖

介绍了一种由梯形砖改型设计而成的新型多功能燕尾空心卯砖及其实际应用。